There is currently more open interest in "call options" bets that the bitcoin price will rise than in "puts" bets the price will fall.
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This opens a slight volatility risk for the market. If the premium on futures shrinks then we can see unwinding of the carry trade which can increase short term volatility for bitcoin into the expiry. Bitcoin's looming record options expiry could spark a bout of price volatility, as previous large expiries have caught investor attention. The size of the bitcoin open interest market has also soared recently, more than doubling since last summer.
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The recent bitcoin price boom, which has seen it double since the beginning of , has been put down to rising Wall Street institutional adoption , corporate interest led by Tesla and MicroStrategy MSTR , and a wave of retail traders keen not to miss out of the rally. Last week, Deutsche Bank analyst and Harvard economist Marion Laboure has predicted "the next two or three years should be a turning point for bitcoin," pointing to Tesla's trajectory as a potential road map for bitcoin to "transform potential into results.
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That makes them vulnerable to a sudden move to the higher side. To hedge against the exposure, traders can short sell BTC 0.
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Option traders generally hedge delta with options. However, in particularly fraught times they could also resort to hedging with the underlying asset itself, leading to heightened price volatility, according to Chung.
Bitcoin extends its slide, tumbling below $50,000
As long as these options remain open in the market, the next couple of days could be interesting — and perhaps volatile — for bitcoin. Subscribe to , Subscribe. Bitcoin options open interest on Deribit.
Read more about Bitcoin Options Bitcoin Options. The futures market shows traders and fund managers are more optimistic about the prospects for oil demand than at any time in the last year. This coming week, the three major forecasters will release their most recent assessments of demand and their estimates of demand growth. The EIA, which issues longer-term demand forecasts, expects to see the global crude market tilt into a modest deficit over as a whole, with consumption forecast at The IEA expects demand to grow by 5. OPEC and several partner countries continue to restrict daily oil production to keep a safety net under the price.
Investment bank UBS says the group will remain "in full control of the oil market" this year and this, together with the advent of an effective vaccine, means the price of a barrel of crude will continue to rise. Inflation and, more to the point, the market's expectations for inflation, is creeping up. A combination of increases in the price of things like oil and food, as well as vast amounts of cash flowing through the financial system are slowly translating into a pickup in consumer inflation. But this isn't necessarily a bad thing, analysts say.
Central banks generally use inflation measures that strip out food and energy prices when setting monetary policy, but that hasn't stopped investors from betting on more increases to come. In the US, consumer inflation is forecast to have risen by 1.
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The bond market shows investors believe consumer and producer price pressures are going to continue rising. Analysts at DataTrek said in a note last week US five-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities TIPS have done "a reasonable job" of forecasting the stable rate of inflation seen in both producer and consumer prices over the last decade. The 2.